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预计市场需求持续低迷 欧佩克可能继续减产

  Iran and Venezuela lead calls for cuts in production withinOpechttps://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article5877504.ece

  Pressure is increasing on Opec to announce a further cut inoilsupplies when the cartel meets in Vienna on Sunday, butSaudiArabia is likely to argue for more compliance with existingcutsbefore it agrees to further reductions in output.

  Expectation that a further cut was imminent sent the oilfuturesmarkets higher yesterday, with the price of US light crudetradingmore than $3 higher at $48.83 before falling back.

  Abdullah al-Badri, the secretary-general of Opec, suggested thatacut was an option available to the group of oil exporters.“Alloptions are on the table,” he said yesterday.

  However, al-Hayat, a Saudi-owned newspaper, suggested thattherewas no need for a further cut if Opec mrs met the previoustargetof a reduction in output of 4.2million barrels per day(bpd).

  Mrs of the cartel are suffering a cashflow squeeze because ofa$100-a-barrel fall in the oil price since last July. In Decr,the12 mrs agreed to a target of 24.845million barrels (excludingIraq,which is suspended from quota obligations), but the full cutof4.2million bpd has still not been achieved.

  It is believed that only half the cut was achieved inJanuary,with the most hawkish states - Algeria, Iran and Venezuela- makingonly token reductions amounting to no more than 200,000 bpdintotal in output, while Saudi Arabia alone reduced its outputbymore than one million bpd.

  Compliance in February is believed to have been greater,accordingto the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES). “There isevidencereal cuts were made in March,” said Julian Lee, of theCGES, whichestimates that compliance is now 800,000 bpd shy of the4.2millionbpd cut target.

  Both Iran and Venezuela have called for further production cutsbyOpec, arguing that stocks were still too high, and a furtherfall inglobal oil demand of one million bpd is beingpredicted.

  Further evidence of weak demand emerged yesterday fromChina,where industry sources indicated that the country"sstrategicstorage tanks of crude oil had been filled. China hasbeenstockpiling crude in four new coastal storage sites capableofholding about 100million barrels of oil - equivalent to aboutonemonth of China"s crude oil imports.

  Confirmation that the storage tanks were being filled and thattheprocess was complete represents a bearish signal to the oilmarket,according to Mr Lee. He said: “That would knock a littledent inChinese demand. Over the next month or so, we will see afurtherslip in Chinese demand.”

  Christopher Bellew, of Bache Commodities in London, said:“Myfeeling is that Opec is able to prevent further price weakness,butuntil the over-hang of oil stocks begins to be eroded, theywillstruggle to raise prices.”

  中国日报网环球在线消息:据英国《泰晤士报》网站报道,要求国际石油输出国组织(欧佩克)继续减产的压力正在加大。
在3月8日该组织举行的维也纳会议上,一些国家提出了进一步减产的建议,但沙特阿拉伯则认为成员国应首先实现上次提出的日减产420万桶的目标。

  由于市场预期国际石油产量会进一步缩减,9日收盘前美国轻原油每桶交易价上涨3美元,收于每桶48.83美元。

  欧佩克秘书长巴德里9日提出,减产是石油输出国一个可行的选择。不过,沙特《生活报》(al-Hayat)报道称,如果所有欧佩克成员国能实现之前提出的日减产420万桶的目标,则无需继续减产。

  自去年6月以来,国际石油价格大幅下跌,跌幅已达每桶100美元,欧佩克成员国因此面临资金问题。去年12月,该组织12个成员国同意了日总产量2484.5万桶(即日减产420万桶)的计划,但截至目前这项减产计划还没有完成。据悉,到今年1月日减产420万桶的目标才实现了一半,但据设在伦敦的全球能源研究中心称,今年2月的减产幅度已经加大,且已有证据显示3月也进行了减产。

  不过,伊朗和委内瑞拉仍呼吁成员国继续减产。两国认为目前石油储备仍然很高,并预计石油需求量还将再减少100万桶。

  3月9日,从中国传出的消息表示,该国已经完成了原油战略储备。有人士预计,在未来约一个月内,中国的石油需求量将会有进一步下滑。

  (环球在线:王妮娜)

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