By Michel Merluzeau

　　迈克尔 默露齐奥

　　Recent pictures obtained by Frost & Sullivan show the new J-10 combat aircraft more closely than ever before. At first look, the aircraft is very impressive, particularly when compared to previous generation Chinese built types. However, one must be cautious about the true extent of Chinese "original" content in this aircraft, as many experts of the Chinese military have extensively elaborated upon in the past.

　　弗罗斯特&萨利文杂志社最近获得照片上的新歼十战机比以往照片上显示的距离更近。第一眼看上去此飞机给人以深刻印象，特别是与中国以往战机相比时。但是，在这款战机中，中国“原创”的成分到底有多少却令人警惕，正如在过去许多中国军事专家对此作了大量阐述。

　　We have examined the aircraft and its capabilities internally, as well as in previous articles, roughly equivalent to an F-16C, the FC-10 is China’s hope to achieve independence in the production of advanced combat aircraft and may have export potential in the next 5-6 years.

　　我们私下对歼十及其能力进行了检验，并参考了以前的文章，认为它大致相当于F-16C。可以说歼十是中国实现独立自主生产先进战机的希望，在未来的5－6年内可能有出口潜力。

　　Such a program however has significant repercussions for the Chinese industry as a whole. The advanced technologies developed for and used on this aircraft have propelled the Chinese industry in a new technology era, and will most likely lead to the acceleration of several new programs in the area of weapon systems, payloads and sensors. To some degree, the J-10 is roughly the equivalent of a mini Apollo program for the Chinese. We estimate that roughly 150,000 people are directly or indirectly participating in this program. As a direct consequence of the lengthy development of J-10, China has made key advances in the areas of propulsion, low observability and flight control systems that will be further refined and integrated in the J-12. This also raises the usual concerns about technology transfers by third party countries such as Israel and Pakistan, which have undoubtedly provided China with a wealth of knowledge, worth millions of man-hours of research and development.

　　但是这样一个计划从整体上对中国航空工业有着重大影响。为歼十开发并用于歼十的先进技术已经将中国航空工业带入了一个技术新纪元，并且极可能导致武器系统、有效荷载和传感器领域内几个新计划的迅速发展。从某种意义上说，歼十大致称得上是中国的“小阿波罗计划”。我们估计约有十五万人直接或间接参与了歼十计划。长期开发歼十的一个直接结果是中国在飞机推进、低可探测性（隐行）和飞控系统领域取得了重大进步，随后将进一步改良并用于歼十二。这也引起了人们对第三方国家比如以色列和巴基斯坦技术转让的普遍关注，这些国家无疑提供了一笔知识财富给中国，价值相当于数以百万计的研究开发工时。

　　Now, looking back at the aircraft itself, it is most interesting to note the apparent quality of the manufacturing process, which is in sharp contrast with previous versions of the J-8II for example. Engines and radar are derivatives or licensed versions of Russian origin initially developed for the ill-fated Mig-33. Indeed, China and its original partner in the J-10 project, Israel, were not capable of developing the advanced propulsion system needed for aircraft. China then turned to Russia who initially supplied the AL-31F, which are used in China‘s J-11 Flankers. J-10 now uses the modified AL-31FN, which is a miniaturized upgraded version of the F model and has a modular afterburner.

　　现在回过头来看歼十本身，最有趣的是注意到制造工艺的外观质量与以前版本的战机比如歼八II形成鲜明对比。发动机和雷达是最初为时运不济的米格33开发的俄制衍生产品或授权产品。事实上，中国及其歼十项目的原始伙伴以色列当时都没有能力开发歼十需要的先进推进系统。因此中国转向为中国版侧卫歼十一提供AL-31F的俄罗斯。歼十现在使用经改进的AL-31FN，是F型发动机的缩小升级版，并带标准化后燃机。

　　We also believe that the current engine used on the J-10 is only going to be fitted on early production; a next generation engine, the WS-10/A turbofan engines designed by Shenyang Motor Company will likely be fitted later on. The WS-10/A has already completed flight-testing on a J-11/SU27. We can expect WS-10/A to be a lighter engine with performance superior to the AL-31FN, in the area of 25,000Lbs of thrust. Russian and Chinese engineers are also collaborating in the area of thrust vectoring developed for the SU-35, and future versions of J-10 or more likely J-12 could be fitted with this additional capability.

　　我们还坚信现在用于歼十的发动机只会用于早期产品；下一代发动机即沈阳黎明发动机公司设计的WS-10/A涡扇发动机将很可能在以后用于歼十。WS-10/A已经在一架歼十一/苏27上完成了飞行测试。我们可以预计WS-10/A是一台性能优于AL-31FN而重量更轻的发动机，推力达25,000磅。俄罗斯和中国的工程师还将在为苏35开发的矢量推力领域展开合作，歼十的未来版本或者更可能的是歼十二可以安装具备矢量推力这一附加能力的发动机。

　　J-10 is bad news for Taiwan and India. Now equipped with advanced generation aircraft (J-11, J-10 and may be FC-1), and developing its AEW capabilities, China is almost on par technologically with some of Taiwan’s most advanced aircraft. Still, much needs to be done in the areas of training and weapon systems to give the PLAAF a significant advantage over the Taiwan straits. Although China is in a position to fight and possibly win such an engagement now, its capabilities and chances of success will reach new levels around 2008-2009. That’s of course if you take the US out of the equation…

　　歼十对台湾和印度来说绝对是坏消息。如今中国装备了先进战机（歼十一、歼十和可能的枭龙），而且正在发展其AEW（空中早期预警）能力，使得中国大陆在技术方面达到了与台湾一些最先进战机同等的水平。不过，中国大陆空军要想在台湾海峡取得明显优势，尚需在训练和武器系统方面下大力气。尽管中国现在摆出战争姿态而且也可能赢得当前的战争，但是其取胜的能力和机会在2008－2009年将达到崭新的水平。这种推断当然是基于不把美国考虑在内。

　　作者：玉龙飞雪(hjglj90) (新军事 人民网论坛)